Nebraska: Boring and flat. Our game preview is neither of those.
Kickoff time: 12:00 EST
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
Michigan -18, O/U 50.5
Wear Maize
When I studied aerospace engineering at Michigan, my aerodynamics professor described the boundary layer of an airflow over a theoretically infinite long plate. Turns out this plate exists, it's called Nebraska.
If you've ever had the drastic
misfortune of driving through the entire state of Nebraska, you'll
quickly realize why Cornhusker football is so important to the residents. Last year I took a two week road-trip that included a trek
from Appleton, Wisconsin to Denver. The path of least resistance is
to go through Omaha and drive the entirety of the state of
Nebraska.
Via South Park |
I stopped in Omaha, grabbed a hotel and checked in at about 1 a.m. to the
friendliest 1 a.m. hotel clerk the world has ever seen. The next
morning I began my drive. The 1st hour I walked right into
Memorial Stadium and was greeted by the friendliest event staff
hosting a summer camp the world has ever seen. Everyone in this state
is so friendly. Like, suspiciously friendly. I grabbed some
photos of the (actually quite beautiful) stadium and ventured off
into the corn abyss.
The 2nd hour of the drive I
saw a tree. It was quite the sight. Across the horizon I thought I
could see the next tree but I couldn't tell if it was 10 miles or 80
miles away. There was an unidentifiable smell.
Literally 400 miles of this. |
After about two weeks of driving I was
on hour 3 and looked down at my GPS with the dismay of knowing I was
only about half way through. A flat-earth society chapter was
probably down a side-road. I didn't care to think much about how many
nuclear missile silos I had passed.
On hour 4 I had wondered if Nebraska is
actually its own dimension similar to Pacman where if you exit the
left side of the map you re-enter on the right side and continue
infinitely. I saw the tree again. It may have been the same one. I
think. The wind in the corn abyss whispered my name. There was that
smell again. This is the perfect place to get away with murder. I
remembered how suspiciously friendly everyone was.
On hour 5 I passed a sign that said
“Welcome to Colorado” and shed a single tear.
Anywhere I travel to that makes me say "I miss Iowa" is a bad time. Anytime I drive through an area that
makes me genuinely wonder “do people live here on purpose?” I have to really
wonder what it is that keeps them entertained. For Nebraska, it's
Cornhusker football. There are no NFL, NHL, or NBA teams. A Google
search for “entertainment in Nebraska” nets you-
Oh.
Scott Frost leads Nebraska in year zero
of what will probably be a damn good football program in a couple
years that the Big Ten West lacks outside of Wisconsin. But for 2018,
Nebraska is 2008 Michigan. Hopefully Michigan is not 2008 Wisconsin.
Martinez will likely play for Nebraska, and even as a freshman he can be dangerous |
Nebraska Offense vs Michigan Defense
The
Cornhuskers offense will be with freshman QB Adrian Martinez
(different QB than Taylor Martinez, I bring this up because actual
people didn't realize). Martinez suffered a leg injury against
Colorado with 3:29 remaining in the 4th.
Before his injury, he was 15/20 for 187 yards (1 TD/1 INT) and had
117 rushing yards on 15 carries (7.8 avg, 2 TDs) against the number
50 S&P+ defense. Not bad for a freshman. In fact the entire
Nebraska offense outgained Colorado 565 to 395. So what
happened?
Two Nebraska fumbles on their first two offensive drives gave Colorado an early 14-0 lead. After regaining a 21-17 lead at the half, the offense stalled in the 2nd. Against Troy, Andrew Bunch threw two picks (one on a not-so game winning drive), receiver Jack Stoll fumbled after making a catch, Scott Frost called for a bunch of runs on 3rd and long, and multiple failed red zone trips happened.
Two Nebraska fumbles on their first two offensive drives gave Colorado an early 14-0 lead. After regaining a 21-17 lead at the half, the offense stalled in the 2nd. Against Troy, Andrew Bunch threw two picks (one on a not-so game winning drive), receiver Jack Stoll fumbled after making a catch, Scott Frost called for a bunch of runs on 3rd and long, and multiple failed red zone trips happened.
Nebraska's
offensive woes are laughable, but lets not act like they're not also
dangerous. Stanley Morgan Jr. had 986 receiving yards last season and
has 139 yards in two games so far this year. Against Colorado,
Nebraska had rushers go for 117, 104, 60, and 34 yards for a 329 yard
day on 54 carries (6.1 avg). The Cornhuskers have generated the #45
S&P+ offense and one of those games was without their starting
QB. However, they also haven't faced a defense as good as Michigan's
yet this season. We saw Michigan struggle to contain Wimbush against
Notre Dame and struggle to defend slant passes against SMU. Getting
Khaleke Hudson back in the 2nd
half will be important for the Wolverines.
Nebraska's
offense is like The Hobbit trilogy. Somewhere in there, you can piece
together a really good 2-3 hour performance. The cast and director are
perfect for the system, the setting is just what we expected, large
hype and expectation, and- wait, you're adding a Dwarf-Elf-Elf love
triangle? You're running the dang ball up the middle against Smaug on
3rd
and long? Why is Gandalf being imprisoned by Nick Saban in Dol
Guldur? STOP FUMBLING THE DANG ARKENSTONE ARGHH. Nebraska fans on the
loss to Troy: “Why does it hurt so much?” BECAUSE IT WAS REAL
/turns off TNT
THIS IS A THING AGAIN |
Nebraska Defense vs Michigan Offense
Let's
talk about the
you-know-what first. Nebraska sacked Colorado seven times, Troy three
times. 2.5 of these sacks came from senior linebacker Luke Gifford
and 2 from defensive lineman Khalil Davis. 5.0 sacks per game is #2
in the country, but low sample size and whatnot. They also rank 9th
in tackles per loss per game (9.5). In two games, the Nebraska front
seven have held rushing offenses to 44 yards (1.3 avg) against Colorado
(#50 S&P+ O) and 143 yards (4.2 avg) against Troy (#78 S&P+
O). This is a beefy front seven that has the #20 rush defense in the
country and can give Michigan headaches if the offensive line cannot
hold. Michigan's tackles did not give up a sack against SMU, but
Nebraska will be a next step in the challenge.
Nebraska
did, however, give up 351 passing yards to Colorado. Steven Montez
was 33/50 and had 3 TDs. The Cornhuskers have the #79 ranked passing
defense, but did hold Troy to 110 passing yards, making the loss in
that game even more confusing.
Colorado's
longest reception was a 40-yarder, meaning most of the passing yards
were short to mid-range. The Buffalo QB averaged 10.6 yards per
completion. Michigan could expect a big day from the tight ends and
Grant Perry, though Perry has only had 60 yards on 6 receptions so
far this season. Michigan now has a QB who can hit down-field threats
like DPJ, so if Michigan can get enough time from the offensive line,
this could play a major factor in this game. The question will be,
can the offensive line hold off the defense for that long?
Inside the giant 'The Team (x3)' banner |
Best
Case Scenario
The
preview is written under the assumption that Martinez is playing. If
he doesn't play, well LOL enjoy the slaughter. But assuming Martinez
is under center:
-Nebraska
continues their streak of troubles turning the ball over, especially
when things seem to actually be going well for them.
-Michigan
picks apart an 'ehh' Nebraska secondary for a 200 yard passing game.
-Karan
Higdon beast modes his way through the Nebraska front seven for a 100
yard game.
-Martinez is not 100% (and we wish him a speedy recovery)
-Lil
Red stays off the field and out of my nightmares.
Worst
Case Scenario
-Martinez
plays fine and goes freshman Tate Forcier vs Notre Dame
-Nebraska
doesn't turn
the ball over
-Nebraska's
front seven sacks Patterson to end multiple crucial drives and stops
the run game
WEAR MAIZE |
Score
Prediction
If
this turns into a weird game, Nebraska has the pieces to pull off an
upset. Losses to Colorado and Troy suggest a bad team, but Nebraska
likes to shoot themselves in the foot a lot, and sometimes teams
don't shoot themselves in the foot. Nebraska's offense has shown
itself to be more effective than Michigan's except for the actually
scoring the touchdown part. Michigan's pass defense, special teams,
and turnover margin should be the difference maker for the
Wolverines.
Also Michigan likes to play the opposite of how I've been predicting these things so there's that.
Michigan
31-20
Past
Highlights
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